There are about four months before first votes are cast in the Democratic primaries for the 2008 Presidential election. Four months is just a extended amount of time in politics. Anything can happen in four months in election campaigns. However, at this time in the act, Elect Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead in the latest polls and appears like she is about to make the actual primary process her personal coronation for the Democratic Party nomination.
Consider the latest NBC News, Wall Street Journal poll (8/1/2007) for a moment. Hillary Clinton leads her closest rival Barack Obama by a 43% to 21% margin nationally. The newest Gallop survey even offers similar findings This can be a huge increase from her small 36% to 31% advantage over Obama in April of the year.
Also, Clinton leads Obama by 49 to19 percent
(30 point advantage) in delegate rich California in a poll released on August 17, 2007, for the Sacramento Bee newspaper.
Hillary Clinton's poll numbers have shown a dramatic gain since the recent CNN/Youtube debate with Barack Obama. Barack responded in the affirmative to a concern about meeting American- bashing dictators by providing them with an audience as President. This exposed the question of his not enough experience for Hillary to exploit and she did so very well.
Her reflection that Barack was "naïve" and would be used for propaganda purposes, underscores what most Americans believe; that Obama is just a very charismatic, intelligent man who is also very inexperienced in managing domestic and foreign government affairs. Barack may well be a politician with an enormous future, but he Elect Hillary Clinton includes a very limited resume of government experience in the present.
Hillary still has challenges to overcome over the next many months before she can claim the nomination from Democratic primary voters, despite her healthy lead in recent public opinion polls. Her challenges are the following:
Barack Obama really has resources. You are able to never underestimate the candidate that raises probably the most money in any election and Barack Obama has raised more cash than anyone else. He has a huge campaign war chest to make use of and is a new fresh face which can regain attract a public fed up with the same old politics in Washington D.C.
Hillary Clinton has high unfavorable ratings. Despite her lead in the polls, Hillary Clinton continues to score high unfavorable numbers with Democrat voters (around 40%) and she remains a polarizing figure nationally by having an unfavorable rating of forty nine percent.If she begins to trail leading Republican candidates in Presidential trial polls, Democrat voters may see her as a loser along with their ticket.
Barack Obama leads in early primary voting states. Obama currently leads in the polls in the early primary states of Iowa and South Carolina and early victories in these primaries could give him momentum and favorable press coverage in other states.
Clinton/Bush fatigue. The country has already established twenty straight years of a Bush or Clinton in the White House and may be looking at four or eight more. It's possible sooner or later to begin to see fatigue with America's two Presidential families and the voters may turn on Elect Hillary Clinton.
Democratic Party primary voters: Recent polls reveal that Democratic primary voters disagree with Hillary Clinton on many of the issues. She remains defending her Senate vote to authorize an Iraq War that is very unpopular to the majority of Democratic primary voters. Also, her belief that America is safer than prior to the 9/11 attacks is a posture only 27 percent of Democratic primary voters agree with.
Hillary Clinton has run a very well managed campaign over the past seven months. She has raised nearly forty million dollars on her (primary election) campaign war chest during the very first 1 / 2 of 2007, and has adroitly exploited every political opportunity while making few mistakes. She has presented herself being an able campaigner and an experienced politician. Her increased standing in most major public opinion poll reflects her campaign's competence.